TFR <1: Welcome to Family Unfriendly, Disappearing Asia
South Korea is projected to be extinct by 2750. Should Singapore subscribe to "Asian values" that cause low birth rates and shrinking societies?
South Korea topped the world again — breaking its own world record of the lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
Some project that by 2750, South Korea may go extinct. In fact, that projection was made when Korea had a TFR just above 1. It is now 0.72, so Korea could disappear even earlier.
Well before that, by 2050, South Korean GDP may turn negative due to poor demographics.
North Asian countries — Taiwan, China, Japan have the world's lowest TFR. Singapore has a TFR of 0.97, a historical low.
Korea and other Asian societies are besieged by low birth rates and incredibly shrinking populations.
But what are the factors driving Asian societies to be responsible for their own slow disappearance? Could it be Asian “values” that provoke widespread social hierarchy, working insane hours to compete with one’s neighbour, a culture of unlimited personal achievement, and generally widespread poor mental health?
Factor #1: Traditional debasement of women’s roles, resulting in the highest gender pay gap in the world in South Korea
Now this is a head scratcher.
Why should the highest pay gap in the world cause Korean women opt not to have children? Shouldn't a large gender pay gap have the opposite effect, as the opportunity cost for women to have children is lower?
Turns out, the more “traditional values” in gender disparity a society has, the worst its birth rate.
As it turns out, Korean women are not happy with bearing the brunt of childbearing, household chores and doing work for much less pay. Worst of all, in traditional Korea, daughters-in-law stand lowest in the hierarchy, and have to cook and serve their husband's whole family on feast days.
Naturally, women are saying No to marriage. Marriage is enslavement, as per Korean culture.
Factor #2: Intense competition against each other in school and work reduces people’s ability and willingness to have children
East Asian societies have always heavily emphasised academic achievement.
On top of normal school, South Korea has cram schools for students running late into the night. It is not unheard of for Korean children to only have dinner at 10pm, after a heavily scheduled day of cram school.
Admission into universities remains incredibly competitive.
With education being an arms race (with cram schools as weapons), depression, anxiety and suicide rates among children in Korea are at historical highs.
Why have children, young people think, if this means feeding your child into the never-ending cycle of personal achievement, endless competition and mental illness, starting from as young as age 4?
Factor #3: Asian values promote a deeply hierarchical view of people in society
Patients in Asia have some of the highest rates of abusing nurses. They treat doctors relatively well. This is because many Asians have the view that nurses are in the “service industry,” i.e. are “serving” them, while doctors are “high up” in the social hierarchy.
Asians tend to treat people in the “service industry” — nurses, chefs, waiters, retail staff, drivers — as people who “didn't study hard” and deserve their low-paying jobs. Accordingly, Asians and their sense of hierarchy justify their condescending treatment of service staff.
This hierarchy embedded in Asian viewpoints drive parents to emphasise academic achievement for their children. Asian parents are utterly terrified that their children will end up at the bottom (or in the lower middle) of a deeply hierarchical society. This is the root cause of status-conscious, money-minded Asian societies.
Case Study: South Korean doctors run up against an ageing society due to low TFR
A week ago, we were further treated to the sight of this in South Korea:
Thousands of South Korean doctors stopping work to protest against a planned increase in medical school intake.
Asian values see doctors as high paying, prestigious jobs. Hence, junior doctors in public hospitals in Korea receive a shock — not only is the pay low, but the government plans to increase the number of doctors!
As Asian societies become super aged and low fertility rates result in shrinking populations, the number of doctors should increase to treat increasing disease rates. However, the smaller population and lower tax revenues are unable to support high doctor salaries. Perhaps one day, doctors will be paid just a bit more than nurses in these Asian societies.
Conclusion: How can Singapore avoid such a fate?
Many Singaporeans still hold on to Asian values of high consumption, strict hierarchy of social status, and academic achievement.
Hence, our TFR is below 1 at 0.97.
I really don’t know if Singapore can sustain a “Singaporean core” 200 years from now. I do think that we are part of an endangered species.
As a former work addict and present mother of two, I see the root reason why couples in Singapore don't have children, as being the fault of a work-obsessed, money-obsessed culture.
Docile Singaporeans simply accept insane work hours, presented by MNCs and SMEs, corporations that don’t think beyond the current fiscal year, never mind the nation's fertility rate. Should the country they're in disappear in 200 years, they would simply move on to the next labour pool.
What is the solution?
I don’t have as good a list of policy suggestions as Heartland Boy here, but I can think of at least two broad strokes below.
A pragmatic government interested in boosting the TFR should regulate work hours, because Singapore employees won't be able to fight for better hours.
Asian values that are a deterrent to a healthy TFR also need to be educated out of people's DNA. I would say such values —hyper competition for competition's sake, social status where the rich are seen to be inherently superior to the poor, a culture that prizes work for work's sake — have proved evolutionarily unfit beliefs to pass on. This sort of silly beliefs are the root cause behind the slow demise of Asian societies.
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