Could a Trump Win Stop the AI/Tech Rally?
The AI/Tech rally seems unstoppable now, but a Goldman trader says a Trump win may stop the rally.
While Mr Market has been complacent in a rousing rally, hitting its 16th all time high for 2024, Goldman trader John Flood says a Trump win could upset the current AI/Tech-driven rally.
US elections are just 5 months away on 5 November. Odds place a Trump win as slightly likelier than a Biden win. The odds of a Republican sweep (42%) are almost twice as likely as a Democratic sweep (22%).
Let's examine Trump policies, in the event of a Trump victory.
10% Tariffs on everyone; 60% Tariffs on China
Tariffs increases appear likely in the event of a Trump victory and would likely strengthen the USD.
Goldman Sachs Research
The Trump tariffs will likely adversely affect stocks with high shares of international revenue.
Surprisingly, the Tech sector has the highest exposure to international revenues, at 59% of total revenue.
Second, comes Materials and Energy, at 47% and 36%.
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